Energy after COVID
Curious declaration of the International Energy Agency on May 18 which asks to stop all exploration and exploitation of new hydrocarbon deposits. It is true that climate change is a serious threat and that greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced. Many European countries have committed to zero carbon emissions by 2050 and China, which continues to use increasing amounts of fossil fuels, has made the same commitment but for 2060 with a peak in greenhouse gas emissions in 2030.
However, let's be realistic: if we have to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the growing energy needs of developing and emerging countries, in particular African countries, are important. It is illusory to think, for example, that electric vehicles will replace thermal vehicles in a few years and that renewable energies will supplant fossil fuels in the short term. Hydraulic energy is important but its potential remains limited and solar and wind energy remain expensive, dependent on metals and rare earths and are ... intermittent. Hydrogen, presented by some as a panacea, will take a long time to become established: production and transport difficulties and the danger of its use do not allow us to imagine a rapid development.
The development of oil and gas projects in Sub-Saharan Africa, which represent only a small fraction of the world's projects, must therefore be pursued, in order to participate in the satisfaction of global needs and to provide countries holding reserves with the financial resources essential to their development.
These projects are numerous:
- CTA (Grand Tortue Ahmeyim) projects between Senegal and Mauritania, with first production expected in 2023 (first production: 2.5 MT/year of LNG, more later)
- Sangomar project in Senegal: 100,000b/d of crude expected in 2023
- Niger crude export project to Benin coast (Sémé Podji): about 100,000 b/d
- Project to export Ugandan crude - after many years of negotiations - to the Tanzanian coast
- Huge gas projects in Tanzania and Mozambique. The construction of several LNG projects in Mozambique are however delayed by the security situation.
Of course we can expect new projects in already producing countries (Ghana, Nigeria, Angola, Kenya). Some of these projects threatened in 2020 by the COVID - see our March 15 Think Tank: impact of the pandemic - should materialize soon
The electrification of the continent is proceeding apace. The increase in demand is growing rapidly in Africa (while it is stabilizing in many Western countries). There are many projects (gas, hydraulic, solar ..) and the strengthening of transmission capacities - see our Think Tank meeting of April 8 - are promoting access to electricity for all in several countries.
What now ?
Soon we will organize a Think Tank meeting on the Continent's energy needs and supply
We are planning - finally - a new edition of the SIEPA (International Oil and Energy Exhibition in Africa) on December 7 and 8 in Dakar. The focus will be on the need for energy transition as well as on the necessary development of projects.
Greetings to all and protect yourself
de l'Énergie en Afrique