Zoom Meeting (Recording)

Executive summary

This joint ADEA/ASDEA conference on oil and gas in Africa 2026 brought together some 60 participants to discuss the continent's oil and gas prospects. Mohamed Seck opened the meeting stressing the importance of the sector for the Senegalese economy. Jean-Pierre Favennec continued the meeting by highlighting the current geopolitical situation, including recent US and Israeli attacks on Iran and Iranian replicas that threatened refineries in Saudi Arabia, significantly affecting oil prices that reached more than $80 per barrel. Anne-Sophie Corbeau presented a detailed analysis of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, explaining how Africa has become an importer of LNG despite its significant resources, with exports accounting for about 9% of global LNG exports. Francis Perrin shared technical problems but presented an overview of new African oil producers, including Uganda, Kenya, Côte d'Ivoire and Namibia, highlighting how Africa is expanding its oil and gas production capacity. James McCulagh concluded by discussing refining in sub-Saharan Africa, noting that despite numerous refinery closures, major projects such as the Dangote refinery in Nigeria and the Sentuo refinery in Ghana mark a revival of refining on the continent.

Executive summary

Mohamed opened the joint ADA-SDA conference on oil and gas in Africa 2026, stressing the importance of these resources as a lever for industrialization and energy sovereignty.

Petroleum Analysis Persian Gulf

Jean Pierre presented a detailed analysis of the oil situation in the Persian Gulf, explaining that the region is home to half of the world's oil reserves and that 15-20 million barrels per day transit through the Strait of Ormuz. He pointed out that Iran's threats to the Strait of Ormuz pose a significant risk to oil exports, with oil prices currently at over $80 per barrel and forecasts of up to $100-120.

Gas in Africa

Anne-Sophie explained that Africa is both an exporter and an importer of liquefied natural gas, with exports accounting for about 9% of world exports. The presentation highlighted the challenges facing Algeria and Egypt, including the competition between domestic demand and exports, as well as the recent signing of a framework agreement between Egypt and Israel for gas imports.

Gas pipelines and LNG projects

Anne-Sophie presented several pipeline projects under study, including the TranSahara Gas Pipeline, the Nigerian Libya Gas Pipeline, and the Nigeria Marov pipeline, while highlighting challenges related to the safety and flexibility of pipelines in relation to liquefied natural gas (LNG). She explained that the United States is becoming increasingly dominant in the export of LNG, potentially accounting for 30% of world exports, but that this poses problems of geographical concentration and price volatility. The discussion also focused on the impact of the Ormuz Strait crisis on LNG-dependent countries, including Pakistan and some Asian countries, as well as the global energy challenges associated with the gas and oil crisis.

Oil crisis in Iran

Anne-Sophie discussed the crisis in Iran affecting oil and gas production, noting that liquefaction units in Ras Laffan were arrested despite the absence of technical damage. She explained that the duration of the crisis remained uncertain but that many countries would be impacted, including the United States, which was heavily dependent on oil prices for the November elections.

Petroleum Discoveries in Africa

Francis presented recent oil discoveries in Africa, focusing first on Uganda (TotalEnergies CNOOC project) and then on Kenya with Gulf Energy and Ivory Coast with Eni. He explained that the Ivory Coast experienced major discoveries, including the Baleine field discovered in 2021 and started production in 2023, with phases of development planned until 2027. Francis also mentioned the new discoveries in Namibia, a country that becomes a new oil actor with resources estimated at several billion barrels, including the Venus field discovered by Total Energy and the field discovered by Galp whose Total Energies took the lead in operations after Galp Portuguese sold him 40% of its participation. Francis also mentions the Sangomar field and Senegal where the offshore project has produced 100,000 barrels a day since June 2024. He stressed that Africa is becoming an important producer of oil and gas, with new offshore projects and the rise of regions such as East and Southern Africa. The presentation ended with questions from Jean-Pierre on production prospects in Nigeria and Angola.

Petroleum refining in Sub-Saharan Africa

James presented an analysis of oil refining in sub-Saharan Africa, noting that several refineries have been closed for economic reasons or following incidents, including the Sonara refinery in Cameroon and the Sapref refinery in South Africa. However, he highlighted a renaissance of refining with the opening of important new refineries, including the Dangote refinery in Nigeria, which has a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day and now controls the Nigerian market. James also discussed funding challenges for new refining projects, noting that the peak in oil demand is expected by 2035, making it more difficult to secure financing for long-term investments in refining.

Energy analysis West Africa

James presented an analysis of the energy situation in West Africa, highlighting the fuel shortages in Mali and the challenges associated with Senegal's stricter specifications that could affect its market share. He explained that the crisis in Ukraine has increased the importance of refining and diversification of supply points, as many African countries have suffered shortages due to the disruption of flows.

Discussion

Francis answered questions about oil production in Nigeria and Angola, indicating that production has declined sharply but seems to have reached a plateau, with cautious prospects for improvement in the coming years. James explained that the NNPC refineries in Nigeria, despite repair programs, did not operate in a stable manner, particularly the Kaduna refinery, which was inoperative for eight to nine years.

Energy flows and Nigerian security

James explained that product flows from Europe have declined due to the Dangote refinery, highlighting Nigeria's energy security risks in the event of a technical breakdown. Henri Baussant asked questions about the prospects for the Semé deposit in Benin and the West African gas pipeline, but participants agreed that these projects had no significant impact on regional energy balance.

Status of Nigerian Refineries

James explained that three Nigerian refineries (Kaduna, Warri and Port Harcourt) are currently inactive due to supply and maintenance problems, with short restarts driven mainly by political considerations. James stated that the Dakar refinery (Sa)r is currently dealing with Bonny Light crude rather than Sangomar for technical reasons and although the refinery has been adapted to process this new crude. The installation of a diesel desulphurization unit would require a new site due to space constraints at the current site. James raised concerns about the gap between jet fuel requirements (currently 7%, 9% expected in 2040) and zero net completion targets by 2050, questioning mechanisms for coordination with sustainable aviation initiatives.

Challenges for Decarbonization of Aviation

James explained that despite the challenges of decarbonizing aviation, increasing jet demand is inevitable due to global population and economic growth. He stressed that carbon offsets and the CORSIA Mechanism could help slow emissions growth, but that the carbon credit market is currently discredited. Anne-Sophie clarified that recent natural gas prices reflect global gas balance and that long-term contracts are not necessarily immediately affected by geopolitical conflicts. Francis said the oil peak could occur between 2030 and 2050, with varying forecasts according to experts, and that oil will remain an important energy source for decades to come.