- Despite record oil production in the United States in 2023, pump prices remain particularly high and oil prices have risen by 19% since the beginning of the year. How do we explain this price increase in 2023?

After the peaks reached two years ago, at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the price of oil had fallen sharply, falling to $70 per barrel or less. By 2023, the successive efforts of OPEC and OPEC plus to raise prices had had little effect. Production reductions, announced in particular by Saudi Arabia, the undisputed leader of OPEC, were not enough.

The situation changed in early 2024. Economic growth is strong in the United States and China's economic situation, although still fragile, has improved from 2023. The demand for oil, despite the announcements by COP 28 announcing an energy transition "out of fossil fuels", therefore remains sustained and increasing. Coté offers OPEC's decision more to extend production reductions leaves the threat of insufficient oil production to meet demand at the end of the year.

All this in a troubling geopolitical context: war in Ukraine that does not give any sign of appeasement; crisis in the Middle East. In particular, two factors affect the price of oil. First of all, the attacks by Ukrainian drones which destroyed installations in several Russian refineries and reduced the availability of petroleum products. However, these refineries for repair need parts manufactured in Western countries only but unavailable due to the embargo. Therefore, repairs will be long or impossible in some cases. Then the attacks of ships by Houthis rebels off Yemen that force many ships to go through Cape of Good Hope, slowing down traffic and increasing transport costs

- Opep members and their allies, meeting within Opep+, agreed last month to extend their agreement to reduce crude oil production until the end of the second quarter. How can we explain this decision?

As already indicated, oil prices fell to a relatively low level in 2023. However, most of the revenues of OPEC and OPEC plus producer countries depend on hydrocarbon exports and therefore on oil prices. Many experts consider that a price of about $80 per barrel is "satisfactory" for exporting and importing countries. The main factor in determining the price remains the supply balance. Since its inception OPEC has had the aim, except in special circumstances, of avoiding too low prices. That is why the Organization has set up a system of quotas, collectively agreed production ceilings, which member countries must not exceed. This quota system, applied to the 12 OPEC countries, is also applied to OPEC countries plus.

Two countries dominate the OPEC – OPEC plus package: Saudi Arabia and Russia, which account for almost 50% of the production of these organizations and almost 25% of world production. Both countries seek to maintain high prices. Saudi Arabia needs to finance its ambitious Vision 2030 development plan and Russia needs its oil revenues to finance the war in Ukraine.

- Former President Donald Trump recently met with Saudi Arabia's leader, Prince Mohammed bin Salman. This is their first public conversation since Trump left office in January 2021, reports The New York Times. Can we see Trump's hand behind rising oil prices? What do we know about the relationship between the two men?

Relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia have long been at the heart of global oil geopolitics. By the agreement of the Quincy (name of the cruiser where King Ibn Saud and President Roosevelt met in April 1945) Saudi Arabia undertook to produce all the oil needed for the Western world in exchange for American military protection.

The September 2001 attacks, the expansion of American shale oil production, led to a loosening of ties between the two countries. In addition, during his two terms of office, President Obama wanted to negotiate with Iran, an opponent of Saudi Arabia, in exchange for the lifting of the US sanctions on Iran, to secure a halt in the work leading to Tehran's possession of nuclear weapons. This rapprochement between the United States and Iran, endorsed by the Vienna agreement on Iran's nuclear power in 2015, could only displease Saudi Arabia.

In 2018 Donald Trump withdrew from this agreement, allowing in fact a resumption of uranium enrichment by Iran. This deterioration in US relations with Iran was both good and bad news for Mohamed Ben Salman, leader of Arabia. Good news as the return of US sanctions weakened Iran, whose economy relies heavily on oil exports that are now very limited. Bad news because it could eventually allow Iran to dispose of atomic weapons. But it is likely that Mohamed Ben Salman's relations with Donald Trump are better than those that the Crown Prince has with Joe Biden.

- Do oil-producing countries discreetly raise prices to favor Donald Trump? Should they see him re-elected?

The election of Donald Trump would have a disadvantage for producing countries: the former (and possibly future) president would favour the production of shale oil and gas in America while Joe Biden's policy, more environmentally conscious, can limit this production and actually promote extractions in OPEC countries

Conversely, a US policy led by Donald Trump that would give less importance to environmental and climate protection could favour OPEC countries.

Let us not forget that Russia is one of the major producing countries and that Donald Trump by causing the blocking of US aid to Ukraine actually favours Russia. So his election next November would probably not be badly seen by Moscow