1- The United States now produces 50 per cent more oil than Saudi Arabia, according to data from Rystad Energy. How can this phenomenon and evolution be explained? Is this a trompe-l'oeil phenomenon? Is it really linked to an increase in oil production in the United States or is it linked to a decline in Saudi Arabia's production?

The United States has long been the main oil producers. The depletion of resources led to the end of the 20th century the United States importing large quantities of oil. Strongly dependent on imports until 2005, the US reduced these imports thanks to the expansion of production in the Gulf of Mexico and subsequent shale oil production from 2010. US production is steadily increasing. With Canada, North America is now independent of oil. North American production is higher than demand. The United States, while continuing to import significant amounts of heavy oil from Venezuela and the Middle East, exported significant quantities of shale oil. The US currently produces more than 16 million barrels per day (for world production of just over 100 million barrels).

Saudi Arabia has huge conventional oil reserves. Saudi Arabia's production capacity is about 12 million barrels per day and the country is able to increase this capacity rapidly if circumstances so require.

However, the market situation has led Saudi Arabia to reduce its production. Oil prices have fallen sharply in recent months. The stagnation of the world economy, the weak economic growth of China, which is the engine of oil demand, while the production capacity of black gold is at the highest, explain this weakness in prices. The main oil-producing countries grouped within OPEC (Organization of Petroleum-Producing Countries, which comprises 13 countries including Saudi Arabia and major producers in the Middle East); Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates) and OPEC plus (with Russia in particular) are trying to regulate the market through production quotas. These are extraction ceilings for the 23 OPEC and OPEC plus countries. Saudi Arabia, largely dominant in this organization, has considerably reduced its production to set an example and try to adapt its extraction to demand. Saudi Arabia needs a price of 80 to 100 dollars per barrel to balance its budget and finance the ambitious Vision 2030 plan, which includes huge investments to support the energy transition, the reduction of oil needs and the development of renewable energies. Hence the government's decision to reduce production to avoid surpluses that could lead to a sharp fall in prices. Saudi Arabia's production is currently around 9 million barrels per day.

2- What could be the consequences of this increase in production for the US economy and for US energy prices?

The increase in oil production in the United States is good news for the US companies and states concerned. Offshore production, particularly in Texas and Pennsylvania, of shale oil contributes to the growth of employment and wealth of these states.

However, the oil market is global and the price of oil depends on the global supply-demand balance. While some countries, for example in the Middle East or Venezuela, largely subsidize oil products and allow very low pump prices (a few tens of cents of euros, or even less for gasoline), such a policy is unimaginable in the United States.

However, the abundance of US oil is a key factor. It leads to a relatively low crude oil price and therefore allows US consumers to benefit from more moderate prices.

3- Can this phenomenon last?

The current situation may continue in the coming months. Global economic growth, after the rebound following the VOCID, is very weak. The outlook for China, the main importer of black gold, is very bleak.

In contrast, in many countries with crude oil deposits, oil production capacity could easily develop.

To avoid further price declines, OPEC and OPEC plus will need to coordinate to limit or even reduce their production. Saudi Arabia, the leader of OPEC and OPEC more will want to avoid the possible surplus of production leading to price collapse and limiting its production. The United States, where production is largely in the hands of many individual producers and where the government can under no circumstances restrict production, will favour extraction and will allow this extraction to be maintained at a high level. Production could even increase. Prices are therefore expected to remain moderate.

4- Will this change move the lines on the energy market? Will Saudi Arabia react?

It is likely that Saudi Arabia will closely monitor the development of oil demand and will seek to limit OPEC and OPEC production more to avoid price collapse

It is therefore likely that the price of oil will remain close to the current level, which will not profoundly impact the situation in the energy sector.

In particular, the development of renewable energies should continue.