Energy has always played a fundamental role in the lives of nations. Oil, liquid, so easy to handle and use, played a fundamental role in the two world wars. The United States was able to wage two wars, the war in the Pacific against Japan and the war in Europe against Germany in alliance with Great Britain thanks to a very abundant oil production. The United States then produced more than half of the oil available in the world. Their technologically advanced industry allowed them to produce high quality products. The superiority of American gasoline over German or Japanese essences certainly played an important role in the final victory of the allies

After the Second World War the center of gravity of the oil industry moved to the Persian Gulf Since the five countries around the Gulf – Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) have half of the world's readily accessible oil reserves. These countries, long under the control of the 7 sisters (the major international companies) nationalized their industry in the 1970s and all over the national societies play a decisive role.

This takeover came after two wars that profoundly altered the Middle East. The six-day war (June 1967) saw Israel, thanks to a surprise attack on the morning of June 6, destroy Egyptian aviation and Syrian aviation, win a brilliant victory and seize the still occupied territories: East Jerusalem and the West Bank. In 1973, the Kippur (October) War was intended to be a revenge of Egypt and Syria: the armies of the two countries attacked by surprise the Hebrew state, taking advantage of the celebration of the Kippur which marks a pause in Israeli life. This war is very violent and Israel will resist thanks to the weapons provided by the United States. The Arab armies will be supported by the producing states, particularly the Arab countries that will decide on a considerable increase in oil prices. Six years later the Iranian revolution will be the occasion for a further increase in the price of oil, which will be multiplied by 10 in 6 years

Oil, whose prices will vary considerably until 2024, remains a key element of energy policies. In 2000, there was a strong concern: reserves seemed limited: will we still have oil in the coming years? Today this concern has receded. Instead, the climate crisis is driving much of the coal reserves and part of the oil and gas reserves to land.

The role of OPEC. Established in 1960, OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) currently brings together 12 countries including the Gulf countries, Venezuela and countries of North Africa and West Africa to control prices. In 2016 OPEC decided to reduce its production to increase oil prices. A group of ten major producing countries, with Russia also reducing its production. This is the beginning of OPEC PLUS (OPEC plus ten other producing countries).

In 2024, and despite ongoing conflicts, the price of oil remains moderate, below the levels achieved in the 2010s or 2022s (invasion of Ukraine). The 22 OPEC PLUS countries although with more than 80% of the oil reserves extract less than 50% of world production. Non-OPEC countries, the largest of which the United States and Canada produce more than half of the world's oil consumption.

Thus, the balance of power has changed considerably. The United States imported considerable quantities of oil 20 years ago (nearly 14 million barrels per day) and depended largely on imports from the Middle East, which was one of the causes of the US invasion of Iraq on 20 March 2003. The development of shale oil from 2010 changed the landscape. With production from Canada and the United States, North America has become an exporter of oil and natural gas. As a reminder, US exports of liquefied natural gas enabled Europe to cope with the halting of Russian exports, which accounted for 40% of European consumption.

A new geopolitical energy. The increase in oil and gas production in the United States and Canada means that these countries are now fully independent of energy and benefit from a very low price for natural gas (US$ 4 per Mbtu – unit in the gas sector compared to more than 10 in Europe). Low oil prices also allow low electricity prices, lower than in Europe. America's economic advantage is undeniable and significant

The impact of the energy transition on geopolitical balances. While hydrocarbons (and coal) still dominate the energy scene, the development of renewable energies is rapid. Although hydraulics, wind and solar still cover only a small part of our needs (about 10%), this share is rapidly increasing. Since dam construction is often challenged by NGOs for environmental reasons and sites that can be equipped with reassurance, hydraulic growth will be moderate. On the other hand, whatever the opposition, solar and wind will progress very quickly. A tripling of the capacity of wind turbines and photovoltaics is also a clear objective.

The construction of wind turbines, photovoltaic panels and batteries, especially for electric cars, requires critical metals (lithium, copper, cobalt, aluminum, nickel) and rare earths, often concentrated in a few countries. Thus copper is found mainly in a few countries in Latin America and cobalt, especially in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, where it is exploited, often by children, under catastrophic environmental conditions. The rare earths, particular metals, are fairly well distributed on the surface of the globe but most of the refineries of these metals are located in China, which thus has a very strong means of pressure on other countries.