Africa's energy outlook for 2025.

The year 2025 was a mixed bag, with the launch of major projects and progress in electrification in some countries, and stagnation due to the political and economic situation in others.

Electricity

The electricity situation in the Republic of South Africa has improved considerably, with long and untimely power cuts now a thing of the past. This has been achieved at the cost of postponing the decommissioning of certain coal-fired power plants (coal remains the main source of electricity in South Africa), but also thanks to progress in renewables, particularly solar power

In North Africa, electricity access rates are close to 100%. The priority now is to strengthen the networks. In sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa), the goal of 100% electrification by 2030 will not be achieved. Nearly 600 million Africans still do not have access to electricity, even though real progress has been made as the population grows rapidly. Several countries (Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya) are well on their way to providing their entire populations with access to electricity in the coming years. The development of networks is real and is making it possible to connect remote populations to large power plants. New power plants, often gas-fired, are under construction. But for remote areas, a local network based on solar power, possibly supported by batteries or hydrocarbons, is a solution.

Oil

Oil remains a fundamental source of energy, particularly in the transport sector, but also sometimes for electricity generation when there is no alternative. Oil production remains stable or even slightly increasing after the sharp decline in recent years. Production is expected to increase in countries such as Côte d'Ivoire (development of the Baleine field with a target production of 250,000 barrels per day and the Calao field) and Ghana with the expansion of Jubilee and TEN. Production is also expected to increase in Nigeria, with a focus on deep offshore. The Uganda field, operated by Total and the Chinese company CNOOC, is expected to come on stream shortly. Other fields have been discovered off the coast of Namibia, which appears to be a new oil frontier: Graff (Shell), discovered in 2022 and confirmed by more recent discoveries; Venus (Total Energies), discovered in 2022; and Mopane (Galp, a Portuguese company), discovered in 2024. However, final investment decisions have not yet been made given the depth and complexity of these fields.

In the refining sector, the refinery built in Nigeria by billionaire Dangote (630,000 barrels per day, which is more than the combined capacity of all refineries in the region) is now operating at close to full capacity. This refinery partially supplies the Nigerian market, but the decision by the national company NNPC to charge this refinery for crude oil in dollars while the products are sold in naira is, of course, hampering the supply of the local market. In addition, tensions are evident between Dangote's management and local distributors. Finally, the scale of the refinery's crude oil requirements (equivalent to half of Nigeria's production) is a source of difficulty.

Natural gas

Natural gas is abundant in many countries, from north to south of the continent. Widely produced and used in North Africa for several decades (Algeria, Libya, Egypt), its production has only developed more recently in sub-Saharan Africa, starting with Nigeria (particularly with the Bonny liquefaction plants).

Liquefaction units have recently been set up in several countries: Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Cameroon, and Congo Brazzaville.

The most recent project is the start of production at GTA (Grand Tortue Ameyim) in early 2025, involving BP, Kosmos, Petrosen, and SMH (Société Mauritanienne des Hydrocarbures). The field is located offshore on the border between Senegal and Mauritania, 100 km from the coast. It is part of Kosmos' major gas discoveries in Senegal and Mauritania since 2015. GTA production remains modest (2.5 million tons of LNG per year) and, in principle, phases 2 and 3 are planned. Phase 1 bis could be completed shortly. Other major deposits Yakaar Teranga (Senegal) and Bir Allah (Mauritania) were in the hands of BP, Kosmos, Petrosen (Yakaar Teranga), and SMH (Bir Allah). However, BP withdrew from both projects, leaving Kosmos to face Petosen or SMH and complicating production. In Senegal, the start of production at Yakaar Teranga is eagerly awaited, as it is the source of gas to replace heavy fuel oil in Senegalese thermal power plants. However, the profitability of bringing the field into production depends on abundant production far exceeding the demand of Senegalese power plants. A liquefaction unit to export gas would therefore be necessary.

The most impressive projects are undoubtedly those in Southern Africa. Off the coast of Mozambique and Tanzania, very large deposits were discovered around fifteen years ago. For the moment, only one FLNG built by ENI has been installed off the coast of Mozambique, with a production capacity of 3 to 4 million tons of LNG. Security conditions in the region are regularly delaying the construction of very large LNG units planned by TotalEnergies on the one hand and Exxon on the other. The potential is several tens of millions of tons of LNG per year.

Major challenges

• Financing: insufficient investment, political risk, and economic instability are hindering the implementation of large-scale energy projects. The interest rates demanded by Western investors are prohibitive and are slowing down projects.
• Infrastructure: Aging and underdeveloped electricity grids are hindering the efficient distribution of electricity.
• Regulatory framework: Energy policies that are sometimes inappropriate and a lack of regulatory consistency complicate the growth of renewable energies.
• Training and employment: The lack of skilled labor and specialized training programs limits the development of the sector. However, many training centers have been set up, which should help meet the needs.

Conclusion

Africa's energy balance in 2025 shows significant progress but also major structural challenges. Universal access to energy, diversification of the energy mix, and the transition to renewable sources remain key priorities. The success of Africa's energy transformation will depend on the mobilization of resources, political will, and the continent's ability to innovate and adapt to global challenges.

Jean-Pierre Favennec
Président
Association pour
le Développement
de l'Énergie en Afrique