Oil, Gas, and Electricity in West Africa

Population growth and economic expansion in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in West Africa, are driving a rapid increase in energy demand. Policies aimed at ensuring universal access to energy must also address the major challenge posed by climate change.

Oil

Oil production in sub-Saharan Africa is largely concentrated in West Africa, from Senegal to Namibia. However, the situation varies greatly from country to country.

In Nigeria, the region’s leading producer, output—after a sharp decline in the 2020s—is gradually returning to a more satisfactory level. In Angola, authorities are struggling to revive declining production.

Among other producers, Ghana stands out: despite numerous discoveries between 2010 and 2020, production is slowing, and the government is now trying to revitalize it.

The most promising discoveries, however, have recently been made in Côte d’Ivoire, with the Baleine, Canoé, and Cachalot fields. Developed by ENI, these fields could boost Ivorian production to over 200,000 barrels per day in the coming years. They also contain significant volumes of natural gas, enabling the country to increase its electricity generation and consider exports.

A key player in West Africa’s oil landscape is the Dangote refinery in Nigeria. With a capacity of 630,000 barrels per day, it ranks among the world’s largest refineries—twenty times larger, for example, than the SAR refinery in Dakar. Commissioned in 2024, it is now operating at full capacity. Designed to process both Nigerian crude and imported crude, it aims to supply the local market and export.

The crisis in the Middle East has reinforced its strategic role: many European countries have recently sourced jet fuel from this refinery, as major facilities in the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates) are no longer able to export sufficient quantities. With the global market nearing a shortage, the Dangote refinery has become a key player in the supply of jet fuel. Its success has, in fact, led its owner to consider doubling its capacity, as well as building a large refinery in Kenya to supply East Africa, where most refineries have closed due to competition from the Middle East and India.

Natural Gas

For several countries, natural gas represents a pathway toward gas-to-power—that is, replacing heavy fuel oil—which is costly and polluting—with gas for electricity generation.

Nigeria, which holds the region’s largest reserves, is seeking to massively expand this sector. Côte d’Ivoire is already benefiting from gas supplies from its new fields. Senegal, through GTA, could accelerate its energy transition by developing the Yakaar-Teranga field. Mauritania also has considerable resources, but developing them remains challenging for the time being.

Two important projects should be mentioned:

• The TransSahara project would transport gas from Nigeria to Algeria via Niger. This is an old project recently relaunched by the three partner countries but the obstacles remain
• The Nigeria – Morocco project, originally from a visit by King Mohamed V1 to President Buhari in Nigeria in 2016. The project consists of the construction of a gas pipeline from Nigeria along the West African coast by way of the coast of Benin, Togo, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Conakry, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Gambia and Mauritania. This pipeline could therefore feed the various countries where it passes and of course Morocco. It could then be connected to the currently unused Maghreb Europe gas pipeline to supply European countries. The cost of this pipeline rises to $25 billion to transport 35 billion cubic metres of gas per year. Interestingly, its profitability is not guaranteed. This profitability is probably based on access to the European market, which is currently a stagnating and relatively well-fed market, although damage to Qatar's LNG facilities must be taken into account.

Electricity

Despite notable progress, access to electricity remains one of sub-Saharan Africa’s major weaknesses. Although the number of households connected to the grid is increasing, nearly 600, million Africans still lack access to this energy source. The goal of universal access by 2030 now seems out of reach.

The situation varies greatly from country to country:

• countries such as Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Ethiopia account for a large portion of the unconnected population;
• conversely, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Kenya are gradually moving closer to universal access.

Expanding the power grid remains the preferred solution, but it is still costly. The development of mini-grids for remote villages is increasingly being considered to accelerate electrification.

To meet these goals, approximately $150 billion would need to be mobilized by 2035, yet only one-third of that amount is currently available.

However, it is worth noting the Mission 300 program, funded by the World Bank and the African Development Bank, which aims to connect 300 million Africans to an electricity grid in the coming years.

Conclusion

Over the past twenty years, the energy landscape of sub-Saharan Africa has undergone profound changes. Population and economic growth are driving up demand, while West Africa possesses significant oil and gas resources that can support its development, particularly through natural gas.

Thanks to its growing expertise and better-structured energy policies, the region has the necessary assets to sustainably improve its population’s access to energy.

Jean-Pierre Favennec
President
Association for
Development
Energy in Africa