Why these increases?

The case of oil

The price of oil is rising sharply (albeit less sharply than the price of gas or electricity). It is approaching the price observed in the years 2010-2014 (over $100 per barrel) before the sharp drop at the end of 2014: operators then noted that there was a plethora of crude oil due in particular to the arrival of shale oil on the markets (shale oil: roughly 1Mbpd in 2011, 2Mbpd in 2012, 3Mbpd in 2013 and 4 in 2014).

The increase is often recognised as being due to sustained demand, particularly in emerging countries, while investment is slowing down (as a result of the "will" to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and therefore slow down investment).

The only adjustment variable could be an increase in OPEC+ production but the organisation's production increases, although significant, seem to remain insufficient. OPEC+'s decision in early February to limit the quota increase to a modest level keeps the price high.

It should be noted that the drawdown of strategic stocks (70 to 80 Mb, mainly in the United States - 50 Mb, the rest in Korea, Japan, etc.) has, to put it briefly, no impact.

The case of gas

The price soared in the autumn. The factors mentioned are quite numerous:

- Strong global economic recovery (when the OMICRON variant appeared, the price temporarily dropped because of fears of an impact on global economic growth, but this drop was temporary).

- The need to refill stockpiles which had been largely "emptied" during the winter of 2020-2021 which was quite cold

- Finally, the problem of Russian supplies was at the heart of the debate. Russia supplies nearly 40% of the gas consumed in Europe. Question: have gas supplies from Russia been limited due to the impossibility of producing more or due to Russia's desire to limit supplies in order to put pressure on Europe (Dombass conflict, desire to open the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline)

The dizzying increase in the price of gas is somewhat surprising. Apart from political considerations, it is probably linked simply to a lack of gas. The resources are numerous but the investments to produce them are insufficient, as a consequence of a global will to limit the production of a fossil energy.

It should be noted that the most recent "forecasts" (February) are rather in favour of more moderate prices due to a relatively mild winter and a decrease in tensions around Ukraine.

The case of electricity

The price of electricity has also risen sharply. A simplistic explanation: the price is equal to the marginal cost of production, which is the cost of electricity produced from gas.

Can we blame the deregulation of the electricity sector (and the gas sector) around the world? This deregulation was supposed to lower the price to the consumer. In the end, the consumer's bill can only increase