1- According to information, the decline in crude oil production was observed by satellite imagery in Siberia. What is the reality of the situation in Russia on oil production? What is the extent of this decline?

The drop in production in Russia is linked to Russia's growing difficulty in selling and exporting its crude to the markets. There is an American embargo on Russian exports. In other words, the United States has stopped all imports of crude oil and petroleum products, which has a very limited impact because the imports of hydrocarbons from the United States from Russia were very s weak. On the other hand, the threat of a European embargo would have much more serious consequences. Russia exports approximately 8 million barrels per day of petroleum and petroleum products (out of a total world consumption of petroleum and petroleum products of 100 million barrels per day). A stop – for the moment unthinkable – of Russian exports would have a devastating effect on the markets and on the price of oil because it is absolutely impossible to find 8 million barrels per day quickly at the other producing countries. For the moment the decline in Russian exports seems limited, from 1 to 2 million barrels per day. However, the impact of this decline is already noticeable because the price of oil, which had returned to 100 dollars per barrel, its level before the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, is trending up again.

2- How to explain this drop in production in the oil fields of Siberia in particular? Are economic sanctions and their impact on industry and business the main causes of this decline in production that Russia is trying to hide?

The fall in production is due to the drop in exports linked to the threats of embargoes from Europe. Europe imports several million barrels of oil and oil products every day. Because of the American embargo, operators are more reluctant to import Russian oil. On the other hand, sanctions weaken the productive system and can also lead to a drop in domestic consumption, leading again to a drop in production.

3-Could this phenomenon increase in the future with the end of certain supply contracts and following the departure of Western refiners and traders?

This phenomenon is likely to increase without it being possible to say what the drop in Russian production will be.

4- Can Russia try to overcome this crisis by finding other resources? Can allied countries help Russia or allow it to offset its oil production?

In particular, Russia could seek to sell more oil to China and India, which are the main oil importers in the world today. China and India could be all the more interested in additional imports as they would come at very attractive prices, with Russia expected to lower the price by $20-$30 a barrel. of its products to find buyers. However, China and India are under strong pressure from the United States and Europe not to lessen the effect of the sanctions against Russia.

5- Will Europe and consumers be penalized in the long term by this crisis and this decline in production? Should we expect soaring prices this winter? Â

Europe has decided on an embargo on Russian coal imports, knowing that it is doubtless possible to find other sources of coal. An embargo on gas imports would have very serious consequences because 40% of the gas consumed in Europe comes from Russia. The European Union has set itself objectives for the reduction of Russian imports in the short and medium term without considering a total halt to these Russian imports.

As far as oil is concerned, the situation is complex: a significant decline in Russian production and exports would have significant consequences on the international market and would result in price increases that would undoubtedly be significant because the countries of the OPEC, which could make up for part of Russia's lack of production, regulate the world market and do so in close collaboration with Russia. Russia maintains close ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are most likely to increase production but are unlikely to do so to safeguard their relations with Russia.

Finally, let us note that a reduction in Russian oil exports would not necessarily have serious consequences for Russian financial resources because Russia would export less oil … but at a price higher! Only a total or almost total stoppage of exports would have a significant impact for Russia.