Crude oil exports from Russia fell drastically in the first two weeks of September due to a storm in the Pacific, but an unexplained drop was noted in the Baltic Sea. We are talking about 900,000 barrels less per day. Is this significant for a country like Russia?

Russia is one of the three main oil producers on the planet with the United States and Saudi Arabia. Russia supplies nearly 11 million barrels per day (Mb/d) or about 10% of world production which reaches 100 Mb/d

Russia consumed around 3.4 Mb/d in 2021 allowing exports close to 8 Mb/d. Russia's oil and gas exports accounted for nearly half of Russia's wealth and fueled a significant portion of Russia's budget before the war. Rising oil prices have recently dramatically boosted Russian revenues which approached $100 billion during the first 100 days of the conflict. The European Union was still at this time the leading importer of Russian hydrocarbons.

The sudden drop in Russian exports represents a significant revenue loss for Russia. We must also take into account the discounts that Russia must grant to its customers to sell its oil, discounts supposed to compensate for the risks linked to these imports.

We must complete this panorama by noting that the almost complete cessation of Russian gas exports to Europe is also reflected in a significant loss of revenue, because most of the exports were intended for the EU.

The United States is putting pressure on buyers of Russian oil so that the price is capped and does not exceed a certain threshold. What does this mean concretely?Â

This is to limit Russian revenues by capping the price of Russian oil. This mechanism must be accepted by buyers knowing that it is of course refused by Russia. But by deciding to shape the price of imported Russian crude, importing countries risk cutting themselves off from Russian supplies. The other risk is that of seeing Russia significantly reduce its exports, causing a sharp rise in the price of crude oil.

Who are the main buyers of Russian oil today? What is the forced purchase share? What about "support" for Russia?

The main buyers of Russian oil are China and India, which traditionally were important customers of the Federation before the war and which have significantly increased their purchases since the beginning of the war. year. Before the war, Asia and Europe each imported about 45% of Russian oil. The situation changes. China has significantly increased its imports and is by far the largest importer of Russian oil. China has multiplied by five its imports

The increase in these imports is a windfall effect. Russian oil is available and can be purchased at a 30-40% discount to world prices. The 'support for Russia' aspect is very limited

How much is Russia's "war chest" being amputated by this drop in Russian oil exports?

Russian oil and gas exports were a very important part of the country's income and budget. The decrease in volumes, linked in particular to the loss of European markets which were the most important outlets, is reflected in a considerable drop in Russia's financial resources.

Should we see in this decline the beginning of a lasting trend for Russian exports, with the associated economic consequences?

It is likely that the volumes of Russian oil and gas exports will decline permanently. For oil, the effect of the European embargo should be felt gradually and China and India cannot completely replace the EU. For gas, the Russian decision to stop exports to Europe, which represented by far the largest market, will, despite the price increase which could be temporary, affect reduce Russian recipes.