For a century, predictions about the reversal of oil consumption have all proven to be wrong. Why would Bloomberg's forecast that oil consumption has hit a permanent peak be good this time around? On what elements are they based?

Since the beginning of oil production in 1859, when Colonel Drake drilled 20 meters deep the first oil well which finally allowed access to the pe trolle which was to replace whale oil and allow the kerosene lamps of our ancestors to light us, the predictions of "lack of oil" were numerous. A vice president of Standard Oil in the 1900s pledged "to drink all the oil produced west of the Mississippi." He died before he could drink the millions of barrels produced in California.

Oil discoveries in the Middle East in the 1930s and 1940s put an end to fears of an oil shortage. In reality we have never run out of oil. The demand for oil exploded between 1945 and 1979 as Europe and Japan after World War II needed to be rebuilt. Energy requirements were immense and oil that was easy to produce and use was the ideal energy source. Car parks have grown extraordinarily, domestic fuel oil for space heating has replaced wood stoves, industry has moved from coal to heavy fuel oil. In 1970, oil consumption had increased in such proportions that oil reserves, inexhaustible in 1950, suggested an end to oil in 2000. Hence the famous report of the Club of Rome "Stop growth" in 1972 which highlighted the limits of our development model and anticipated a depletion of our resources in raw materials.

The current situation is different. Oil reserves are considerable and their use will be limited by greenhouse gas emissions and the impact on climate change that would result from uncontrolled use fossil fuels and in particular oil.

The fear of a peak in oil production, due to a lack of resources - an unlikely hypothesis - gives way to an anticipation of a peak and then a decline in consumption oil. This forecast of a peak in consumption is based on very pessimistic economic growth forecasts and on a rapid replacement of oil by other energy sources . This is worth discussing.

How did we get to this situation?

What explains why the predictions have turned out to be wrong so far?Â

'Peak oil' predictions have proven wrong because oil is energy that is easy to produce, easy to use and energy content. high etiquette. You fill up a car at a service station in 2 minutes and then you can drive at least 6 or 800 kilometers for a relatively modest cost if you forget the taxes which represent © feel two thirds of the price of a liter of fuel

The priority is of course to deal with climate change, to limit greenhouse gas emissions and therefore to limit the consumption of fossil fuels.

But if in the Western countries and in particular in Europe this need is at the heart of the concerns, let us not forget that out of the 8 billion inhabitants of the planet, 7 live in Asia , in Africa, in Latin America and their concern is to get out of poverty. This requires increased energy consumption, and, initially, an increase in the consumption of fossil fuels and in particular oil

What will be the consequences of this overtaking of the consumption peak, if it is confirmed?

There will undoubtedly be a peak in oil consumption, but this peak will not occur in the coming years because the needs of emerging countries remain significant. The electric car is adorned with all the virtues, but it is expensive because the price of batteries remains very high and thermal cars will remain in the majority for several more years.

We can imagine a peak in consumption (and therefore oil production) in 10 or 20 years. But we will undoubtedly observe an increase in demand in the coming years.

How can oil consumption evolve in the coming weeks or even months?

We will see in the next few years a slight increase in the demand for oil because emerging countries need cheap energy .. and producing countries remain challenged. pendants of oil revenues.