Power outages in the country are expected to become a common feature over the next two years because of reduced supply from South Africa.

Eskom, the South African utility that has been providing the bulk of power to Botswana, reduced supply to 150 megawatts (MW) last week from 250MW, in line with a five-year agreement, according to BPC spokesperson Tlhomamiso Selato.

Eskom is trying to meet rising demand in South Africa by boosting capacity and cutting transfers to neighbouring countries. It has gradually reduced supply to Botswana in line with an agreement that ends in 2012; it previously indicated that it could no longer provide sufficient power and will reduce supply through 2012, stopping altogether from 2013 onwards.

Botswana, like other Southern African countries, has long relied on abundant and inexpensive electricity. Eskom supplied about 410MW prior to 2008 which was reduced to 250MW last year. In the medium to long term, Botswana power supply constraints are set to continue until the Morupule B station is completed.

Botswana’s Morupule plant, which currently provides about 17 percent of the country’s electricity, is being expanded with extra power available in 2013, Selato said. Botswana is increasing capacity at the plant to 600MW from 120MW, according to BPC.

The Morupule B power station was seen as the sustainable long-term solution to Botswana’s power shortages, but the power situation in Botswana is expected to continue being critical even after the Morupule B power project comes on-stream.

Speaking at the Energy Pitso in Gaborone last year, BPC chief executive, Jacob Raleru, said Morupule B will not be the long-term solution that everyone expects. Although the power station is expected to meet the country’s shortfall, constraints are expected to start again in 2017 due to higher demand.

Currently Botswana’s national peak demand stands at 550MW, but the existing power station which was commissioned 24 years ago produces 120MW, which is about 20 percent of the demand, with the deficit imported from neighbouring countries.

The mining sector is expected to be the hardest hit; as a mitigating factor Debswana is building a 90MW plant near Orapa for its mines, to help limit the impact.

The power situation will be made worse when some big mining projects such as Hana Mining and Discovery Metals come on stream very soon; there appears to be no power to support them.

According to official data, the mining sector presently accounts for about 45 percent of power demand, the commercial sector about 23 percent and the residential sector about 23 percent.

Botswana projects demand to grow at about 4 percent per year, reaching the peak loads of 850MW by 2017 and 1, 130MW by 2026. Botswana has to fill the supply gaps in the short-term and also ensure reliable supply from 2013 when Eskom stops exports to Botswana. The energy deficits will not only hurt growth and diversification, but also pose a threat of economic contraction in an already serious economic crisis situation.

Last year the country had to implement regular load-shedding to control the situation and this is expected to worsen as the deficit grows, unless urgent measures are taken.

The Botswana Gazette